The cabinet reshuffle in #Kenya was all about the @udfparty & @musaliamudavadi

The President and the prime minister decided on a mini cabinet reshuffle that saw the elevation of Hon Ababu Namwamba,Hon Khangati and Hon Ole Metito to full cabinet ministers. Hon Otuoma was moved from ministry of sports to ministry of local government.

Hon Namwamba,Otuoma,Khangati all hail from the western region where the ODM party has recently been dealt a major blow by the defection of Mudavadi to the UDF party.

By virtue of Mudavadi being a powerful presidential contender, western Kenya has gravitated towards the UDF party. In 2007, the western region was virtually ODM, thanks to Mudavadi’s position as the running mate to Raila.

To stem this tide of enmasse Exodus from ODM to UDF,Raila Odinga has decided to wave a few flags in the region. He’s in effect trying to tell the people of western Kenya that they are still in government and, therefore, they should stay in ODM. Khangati’s elevation was also trying to deal with Mukhisa Kituyi, one of the rising stalwarts of UDF. 

Kibaki is bent on delivering the presidency to the western Kenya region. At first, he had settled for Eugene Wamalwa, going as far as elevating him to the powerful cabinet position of the justice and constitutional affairs. He, however, realized that wamalwa is abit to close to Uhuru Kenyatta,and not as influential. From his calculation kibaki realized that the best Eugene can be in the forthcoming general elections is the running mate to Uhuru. Uhuru hails from central Kenya, and it’s my feeling that kibaki is not very comfortable having another central Kenyan succeeding him as president. Kibaki himself is from central Kenya.

With the defection of Mudavadi From the ODM,kibaki was given another lifeline. Mudavadi happens to have the political clout to be a real presidential contender and the kind of demeanor kibaki would consider “presidential”: cool, calm, collected and non-confrontational. He, therefore, settled on him as his successor.
However,the recent  by-elections for various parliamentary and civic seats have not been encouraging given the less than satisfactory showing by the UDF, mudavadi’s party. The  parliamentary seats from central Kenya & rift valley were taken by Uhuru’s TNA, and the one from nyanza was captured by ODM. ODM even won a civic seat in western Kenya, mudavadi’s backyard.  It’s still early days to take this as a reflection of the expected results in the upcoming general elections, but even kibaki had to make a move: He decided that waving the flag in the face of the TNA’s MP-elect Ole Sakuda was a good thing so, he gave the powerful internal Security ministry to Ole Metito, probably a UDF sympathizer.

The whole of that cabinet  reshuffle has all been about Mudavadi: Raila wants to clip his wings while kibaki wants him to soar.

I still think kibaki has a point.         

                       

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One Response to “The cabinet reshuffle in #Kenya was all about the @udfparty & @musaliamudavadi”

  1. kimemiamaina Says:

    I’d like to know how you worked out the intentions of the most secretive presidency in our region without mind reading or having a mole in his inner circle. Otherwise if you look at it from a certain angle Musalia Mudavadi has not shown any clout to deliver votes as a leader of a movement. His relevance in the 1990s came from Moi and KANU. When he had to bring clout to KANU’s presidential ticket, in 02 he lost his seat whereas Uhuru, even in his youth, got into Bunge with several Kiambu MPs in tow. His clout in 07 came from Raila and ODM capturing a sense of exclusion from Kibaki’s govt. In fact I suspect the whole ODM nomination debacle was about getting rid of dead weight rather than fearing his challenge to Odinga (maybe I’m giving ODM’s Luo core more credit than they deserve but hey)

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