RAILA: “It’ll be ODM vs PNU in 2012/3 elections!” Translation: Kenyans need to go back to 2007’s “operation 42 minus 1”

Originally, ODM was created as a movement of those against the so called “wako draft” (“orange camp” as oppossed to the “banana camp”)  during the 2005 referendum on the constitution. This movement comprised of two main categories of people. There were those who were in opposition to the constitution for it’s various shortcomings. This group can be said to have been against the draft constitution in principle. Most were civil society actors, ordinary Kenyans, and a sprinkling of politicians.

The second  group of the “orange movement” was the larger of the two, and it was populated by politicians who had an axe to grind with the kibaki administration. There were two groups here. The first one was KANU led by Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto who were aggrieved after losing  the presidency to kibaki in the 2002 General elections.

The second group of those who were in opposition to the draft  constitution to spite kibaki and his government were the MOU guys. This was a group of politicians who had originally been in KANU but left in a huff after Moi chose Uhuru Kenyatta as his heir. They formed  LDP party and  joined NAK ( kibaki, Ngilu,& the late Wamalwa) in the run-up to the elections  to form the rainbow coalition (NARC) which won the 2002 general elections with kibaki as president.

According to these LDP stalwarts, during the formation of NARC, there was an MOU between LDP and NAK which kibaki disregarded once in power. It’s note worthy here that not all the former LDP luminaries bought into the MOU rhetoric. Notable among them were the then VicePresident Moody Awori, Ngilu and Prof Saitoti. They were in the kibaki’s “banana camp”.

This referendum actually sowed the seeds of the tree which gave Kenya the fruits of ’07/’08 PEV. The referendum which was originally about the constitution ended up being a contest of might between “mt Kenya Mafia” vis-a-vis all other tribes.   

After winning the 2005 referendum, which culminated in the rejection of the draft constitution, the movement decided to upgrade its status to a political party(ODM-Kenya). However, given that the various actors in the orange movement  had just but  a single aim of embarrassing kibaki’s government by defeating his wako draft, they started drifting apart.

KANU split into two with Ruto’s faction remaining in (ODM-Kenya) while Uhuru’s faction cut links with the new party. I believe Uhuru felt used by ODM-Kenya  to further it’s  agenda.

After sometime there was a power struggle in ODM-Kenya  between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka. Raila Odinga and his supporters decamped from ODM-Kenya  to another party called ODM.

In 2007 kibaki decided – against his earlier promise to be a one-term president – to run for a second presidential term. In as much as this was constitutional, and his Democratic right, he could have done a Mandela. This could’ve done his legacy, and Kenya in general a whole lot of good. 

He didn’t think his various parties ( DP, NAK, NARC) were adequate to get him the second term at the house on the hill. He and his supporters  crafted the Party of National Unity (PNU), whose sole ideology if I may call it that was to win him the presidency. Fullstop. This is the reason it disintegrated into splinter parties immediately on his assumption of the presidency. PNU was charged with all the activities of ensuring that every Kikuyu and his dog voted for kibaki. It enlisted the support of the other GEMA communities to defeat ODM. PNU members would go round the villages scaring the day light out of Wanjiku’s by telling them vote for PNU OR be exterminated by ODM and Raila if they get into power! In fact Uhuru, who had hitherto been opposed to kibaki hurriedly joined PNU bandwagon.    

Actually, the point of Kibaki’s decision to run for a second presidential term is where the rain started beating us as a country.

All the supporters of the orange movement believed  that they had defeated kibaki and his government by overwhelmingly voting “NO”. The idea that he was still the president after losing the referendum grated on their nerves. Another presidential term was not exactly music to their ears! It was,therefore, easy to rally all these people by focusing them not on defeating Kibaki but defeating the Kikuyu. This came to be known as “operation  42 minus one”, which politically, was aimed at removing kibaki from power, but socially it was sold to and bought by gullible wananchi as extermination of the Kikuyu.

2007 was, therefore, basically  ODM (Raila) versus PNU(kibaki) on the surface. And Kikuyu( and rest of GEMA) aka Mt Kenya Mafia, versus all the other tribes, under the political radar. Most people  who ran on a PNU ticket in areas outside “mt kenya Mafia” areas  was handed a defeat. The vice versa was true,a case in point being Nyaga.  

When Raila speaks of wanting a rematch of PNU vs ODM, it means he has just realized that as a person he doesn’t have what it takes to get the presidency, especially after losing mudavadi. He is in effect telling Kenyans that we should go back to 2007 and revive all the tribal animosity that existed then so that moronic Kenyans can make him the president. He stiil believes ODM’s 2007 “operation 42-1” is a viable project. He doesn’t exactly care whether kenyans  destroy the country in the process  

This may still work if all the Kikuyu support Uhuru Kenyatta for the presidency (another person who’s hell bent on becoming the president and the rest of you can go face MT Kenya for all he cares).

In fact, ODMs’ popularity is directly proportional to the popularity of a Kikuyu presidential candidate(s). 

Mudavadi is Kenyans’ only chance of a peaceful election. If Kenyans across the country overwhelmingly vote for him, and it’s looking ever more probable, the  project Raila is trying to resuscitate will be truly dead, and everyone can now be free to pursue  activities that give him/her daily bread.                          



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