#KOT, a runoff between @ukenyatta & @odinga_Raila is the worst thing that’ll happen to Kenya this decade.

Before  the start of the ICC trials, Uhuru Kenyatta was just another young man, raised in wealth and pushed into politics by moi. In fact, uhuru couldn’t have won in a contest between himself, Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth

However, it’s said that in politics any publicity is good publicity, and thanx to the ICC trials,  Uhuru Kenyatta has gained so much popularity in central and the rift valley,  that the likes of karua and Peter Kenneth can only be described as also ran. Clearly, there’s nothing so bad that it lacks it’s use, and the ICC trial is a blessing in disguise to Uhuru.

Most of uhuru’s supporters in central province are what I’d call “sympathy supporters”: supporting him for his perceived persecution on behalf of the Kikuyu. The rift valley support comes mainly through having a common enemy (ICC trials), and the the percieved need to appease the Kikuyu, having started the aggression during the 07’08 PEV, in which alot of Kikuyu living in the rift valley underwent hell.

Raila Odinga on the other hand is still popular due to various factors. For starters, the Prime ministerial post ensures that he is always on the news either on government errands or on personal political campaigns. Trying to tell these two roles apart would be harder than separating a mixture of water and milk.

Sympathizers of the original ODM doctrine of removing Kikuyu from power still stick by him, believing that he’s the best candidate to do exactly that. 

At the end of the first round of voting we will end up with Uhuru and Raila as the frontrunners, since none of the candidates  can Garner 50%+1 vote. This means a run off.

We will be back ’07 scenario, with a few variations: the year will not be 2007 & the rift valley will be on uhuru’s side.

All those who still harbour the feeling that the Kikuyu have had the presidency for far too long will gravitate towards Raila odinga. If the number of these kind of kenyans is sufficiently large, we can still  expect a variation of ’07/’08 PEV. It’ll also leave the country divided  

In all the above you must have noticed that it’s not about policies or economic agenda. These two guys have basically nothing to offer Kenya as presidents. Uhuru is just a reluctant  politician who has no idea what poverty or suffering is. This is well exemplified by his inability to actively lobby for the resettlement of IDPs. More was expected from him given that the Kenyatta family owns the better part of the central province’s land.

His attending a GEMA meeting which declared him it’s preferred presidential candidate reduced him to a tribal king, or even worse, portrayed him as a political novice. Uhuru now appears more and more as a puppet with some powerful individuals pulling the strings behind the scenes. Uhuru is the kind of a president who will tell people to eat cake if there’s no unga for ugali.

Raila Odinga is no better. In his many years in politics he has exhibited  a particularly destructive streak. The parties he has actively  wrecked abound, and he is also said to have participated in an attempted coup in ’82.

He joined moi’s government at a time it was busy trying to cruelly  fend off the opposition’s onslaught. He left the moi’s government at it’s weakest point (just before elections) thereby dealing moi’s plans a death blow.

On forming the Narc government, he immediately embarked on a campaign to demonize the Kikuyu (read: mtkenyamafia) in the name of MOU which culminated in the defeat of a very good constitution: the wako draft.

As a prime minister for four years he has  nothing to show for it. In fact he has effectively depressed the investment climate in the country by always threatening to pull out of the coalition with the excuse of non consultation.

Upshot: Raila is only interested in power and the country and it’s inhabitants can go jump in lake Victoria for all he cares.                         
One fatal character flow with Raila, and which could make him dangerous is his lack of respect for the law. You may all chalk down his “korti bandia” (fake courts) pronouncement to politicking, but remember he was the same person who said ODM didn’t have faith in kenyan courts during the disputed ’07 elections, effectively plunging the country into PEV.    

    

       

    

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4 Responses to “#KOT, a runoff between @ukenyatta & @odinga_Raila is the worst thing that’ll happen to Kenya this decade.”

  1. Muhammad Nyamwanda (@Nyamwanda) Says:

    First of all let us agree that both Uhuru and Raila are politicians and they have the right to be in politics like any other Kenyan. The issue of how Uhuru came into politics is neither here nor there what matters now is that he in politics. On the ICC issue to me this is simply a simple matter that he has to deal with in his personal capacity so I will not comment on it. However through smart maneuvering he is now a much more popular leader in some parts than he was before the ICC charges came up.

    My issue is based on your unsubstantiated allegations in your blog post here. The Prime minister has been in several parties yes and so have many others but let us be specific. Raila was first elected into parliament on a ford-kenya ticket in 1992. Following the passsing on of Jaramogi there were leadership wrangles in ford-kenya and some managed to hijack the party for their own self interests. To cut a long story short there was to be an election to elect the ford-kenya chairman which never managed to take off and after several attempts Raila left ford-kenya and went on to form NDP and further to that he even resigned his parliamentary seat and went back to the electorate to ask for a fresh mandate which he successfully did and he came back to parliament as an NDP member of parliament. In the following general election in 1997 he ran for president and lost. In that term in parliament towards the end the era of co-operation with Kanu started where he was even appointed Secretary general of Kanu replacing one Joseph Kamotho. In the run up to the 2002 elections many of the leaders in Kanu expected a fair nomination process but it did not come to pass as the then president was intent on installing Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred succesor. Given this inflexibility many walked away from Kanu including Kalonzo, Saitoti, Raila and others and what happened in the election that followed was that they teamed up with the then NAK and Kibaki beat Uhuru hands down in 2002. It is noteworthy that at this juncture after the mass defections from Kanu one Musalia Mudavadi was lured back to Kanu and he replaced Saitoti who had then walked out of Kanu along with Raila and others. What followed was that Mudavadi went down in the record books of being the shortest serving vice president and he lost his seat in parliament and was in the political cold until he was rehabilitated by ODM and made a member of the then pentagon. Mudavadi actually gained more than he gave and further to this he was even rewarded with the deputy party leader in ODM.

    After the 2002 elections there was the narc government in power with two wings at the time one was the wing of the kanu rebels among them Saitoti, Raila, Kalonzo, Moody Awori and others the wing had the current president, the late Kijana Wamwalwa, Ngilu and others. Things came to a head when there was a constitutional referendum in 2005 in which the then rebels who were against the proposed constitution at the time won and they were subsequently out of government. This gave rise to the Orange Democratic Movement which ended up becoming a political party and which vied in the 2007 elections. After the fiasco a coalition government was formed with cabinet posts shared though some say not equitably among other issues anyway we are now almost at the election so no need to delve into them.

    Moving forward there is currently the perception among many that ODM is falling apart which in my opinion is not true. Mudavadi wants to run for president which is fine. There is a clause in the ODM constitution which makes the party leader the presidential candidate which Mudavadi wants changed. The same party constitution has laid down procedures of how this can be done and time was not on the side of ODM since they had to submit registration documents to beat the deadline and while they did this they also presented a notice to the registrar of political parties with a notice of intent to amend the relevant part of the ODM constitution that Mudavadi wants amended. However it seems that Mudavadi seems determined to leave ODM hence the impatience. The election is still a long way off why does Mudavadi not wait and see how the process in ODM proceeds then he can leave if he feels slighted instead of pre-empting things?

    I hope that if Mudavadi leaves ODM he will also resign his parliamentary seat and he should not wonder what happened if he is relieved of his ministerial post just like Balala. All in all there is no poltical party Raila has wrecked but he has left them when they disagreed on principle like he left ford-kenya when they refused to hold elections for chairman and he left Kanu when Moi insisted on fronting the then political novice Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor and presidential candidate of Kanu in 2002 where Uhuru was beaten hands down.

    ODM is more than individuals it is an ideology and the masses of the people are still in ODM and it looks set to win the forthcoming elections so it is note surprising that such blog posts as these spring up to try and malign ODM and its leader. Let is have issue based discussions that are factual instead of creating imaginary facts and taking positions based on imaginary facts thank you

    • tribe46thkenyan Says:

      Thanx for the reply, and clarification.

      The issue of mudavadi was not part of the article, but I can state here that if mudavadi remains in ODM he might not even recapture his parliamentary seat leave alone the presidency. This is mainly due to the fact that the factors obtaining in 2007 have kind of lessened.

      I did have an issue with mudavadi wanting to challenge his party leader now given that ODM was doing ok in popularity. I wouldn’t expect another person to challenge Obama for the party nomination : if it ain’t broke don’t fix it! I, however, understand his position as I’ve explained above.

  2. Muhammad Nyamwanda (@Nyamwanda) Says:

    please get back to me

  3. Muhammad Nyamwanda (@Nyamwanda) Says:

    well we are headed towards an election so all these things are inter related that’s why I broadened the scope of discussion to give proper historical perspective

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