2012:Ruto(president)Uhuru(VP), 2022: Uhuru(president)…

This combination happens to be the best shot Kenya has at preventing another bout of post election violence;forget ICC, they are just spinning wheels heading nowhere, fast!

For those of us who have selective amnesia,or even worse, short memories,this is basically a reversal of the combination that existed in 2002,the only election year Kenya didn’t experience tribal clashes since the advent of multi-party politics in kenya.

Don’t get it twisted, these might not be the best leaders Kenya could possibly get,but who said Kenyans want the best anyway? In fact these have become tribal kingpins as a consequence of the hype-up debate at the ICC. you see,in politics,any publicity is good publicity.

This is a classic example of what you get when one prescribes ARVs to treat cancer! PEV was a political-social problem which could have been solved politically as I had prescribed in “preventing post-election violence”. However being the daft Kenyans that we are,and with a little help from clueless foreigners(Ocampo et al),we turned it into a purely social problem which could only be solved through a judicial Process.

if Uhuru became so adamant that he has to be the president in 2012, you can expect PEV that will be so social and pervasive 07/08 will look like the proverbial Sunday picnic! This is chiefly because the only people prepared to have another Kikuyu presidency in 2012 are some daft Kikuyu.

The problem with Kenyan Democracy has always been,and will continue to be for a long time, a function of numerical differences in our ethnic combination in relation to the Presidency, coupled with the flawed perception that a president benefits the whole tribe.

The Kikuyu happen to be quite a chunk of a voting block due to it’s high population , and members of other tribes feel threatened by the prospect of the Kikuyu monopolizing the presidency,and it’s attendant perceived benefits.

Kikuyus’ Insistence on voting for “their person”(purely for prestige,i.e they don’t want to be “defeated”) doesn’t exactly do matters a whole lot of good.

New constitution was proffered in various quarters as the only way to prevent post election violence, I differed and I still do. For starters,the new constitution is simply too much black ink on white paper, one of the worst (if not the worst) constitutions in the world! It is too long on promise and short on practical steps to actualize them; all about sharing a national cake without a clue as to how it will be baked. In fact, it’s a party manifesto masquerading as a constitution, and implementing it will be quite the nightmare!

secondly, there is no part in that whole constitution that can possibly solve Kenya’s political-social problems. To some extent it even made things worse

The issue of president being required to attain such number of votes in such number of counties is nothing new: it was in the old constitution. 50%+1 rule was actually practiced in Zimbabwe and by the time of going to press Mugabe was still the president, even after losing in the first round to the opposition candidate. Indeed, in 2007 the elections were a kind of run-off election between Kibaki and Raila( disregard Kalonzo’s 10%)

By dividing the country into Jimbos( read:counties), it made things worse: all it will take is for a majority ethnic group in a certain county to decide that the county “belongs” to them and the rest, as they say, will be history. It happened in the old constitution with the counties not constitutionally recognized, can’t think of why it wont happen again!

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