Under normal circumstances, women politicians are voted in by men, as women vote for men, my guess being that they confuse the term Leadership with men.

Be as it may, men will now feel aggrieved  that women have been favoured too much. They’ll consider the seats allocated to women more than enough,and will, therefore, shy away from voting for women.

Given that women are bent on doing what they always do the world over  (voting for men), and men will be hard pressed to vote in more women, Martha karua has her goose cooked.

Her  chances of being president of Kenya after  2012 elections  are just marginally better than nil!

And this is discounting the work of Omar Hassan and his brother Dr kibunjia on ethnic statistics in the civil service.

As I’ve explained elsewhere,  the 1/3 rule in the constitution is actually a “glass ceiling” to women leadership in Kenya. Ill not be surprised to hear some serious  companies not promoting women to senior leadership positions…                 

I have gone through that constitution with a fine tooth-comb, and I am yet to see something that the president can do without consulting this or the other body, and every action  has to be approved by the legislature.

Did you know that the legislature can pass bills and they automatically become acts of Parliament  without assent by the president? Did you know that the legislature can fire the president without any repercussions to it?

For all practical purposes and intents, the country will be ruled by Parliament!

This is the kind of position the likes of Raila and G7 are spending billions to get.

The unfortunate and sad bit of this ceremonial presidency is that nobody is telling the gullible Kenyans this truth. Most are of the idea that once their tribe’s person gets the presidency,the gravy train heads their tribe’s way. They might be prepared to kill or be killed for a president who even needs Parliament’s approval to scratch his/her behind!

it’s time Kenyans were told “It’s our time to eat’ ended with Githongo book! 

If told this, Kenyan voters  may just vote for president who doesn’t necessarily hail from their tribe…  

I hope Kenyans do not get that kind of message .2012 is just around the corner…

Kibunjia and his team have been busy spewing out “ethnic statistics in civil service” in the name of bringing cohesion and integratin in the country. One would be forgiven to think that their chief job is to generate figures for the National Bureau of Statistics! now I know, us, the Kikuyu make up over 20% of all the government employees,forget the fact that I have never had a job in government. The analysts of the above stats conveniently forget to mention that the Kikuyu make up over 21% of the whole population, also a similar percentage of the unemployed as well as equal percentage of the those students in tertiary institution!

These  statistics  by the NCIC  are just serving as validation to the prevalent flawed perception in Kenya that once a tribe gets the presidency,it benefits Immensely. Such statistics should have been put side by side to statistics of ethnic composition of the whole  population, ethnic statistics composition of the unemployed, ethnic statistics of the student in tertiary institutions (colleges and Universities) as well as statistics showing the ethnic percentages in the private sector.

NCIC and it’s work leaves one wondering whether the problem is that the staff is non- Kenyan, or they haven’t been in Kenya for quite a while, or maybe that they are simply daft!.

Kenya during election is always a powder keg waiting to explode, and what NCIC is doing might just prove to be the spark…

Funny enough, Kenyans, who are always waxing lyrical about how we should move away from the kind of crap NCIC is on about, are nowhere to be found. Remember the suckers who were telling all and sundry not to fill the “tribe” during 2009 census…?

For those of us who have selective amnesia,or even worse, short memories,this is basically a reversal of the combination that existed in 2002,the only election year Kenya didn’t experience tribal clashes since the advent of multi-party politics in kenya.

Don’t get it twisted, these might not be the best leaders Kenya could possibly get,but who said Kenyans want the best anyway? In fact these have become tribal kingpins as a consequence of the hype-up debate at the ICC. you see,in politics,any publicity is good publicity.

This is a classic example of what you get when one prescribes ARVs to treat cancer! PEV was a political-social problem which could have been solved politically as I had prescribed in “preventing post-election violence”. However being the daft Kenyans that we are,and with a little help from clueless foreigners(Ocampo et al),we turned it into a purely social problem which could only be solved through a judicial Process.

if Uhuru became so adamant that he has to be the president in 2012, you can expect PEV that will be so social and pervasive 07/08 will look like the proverbial Sunday picnic! This is chiefly because the only people prepared to have another Kikuyu presidency in 2012 are some daft Kikuyu.

The problem with Kenyan Democracy has always been,and will continue to be for a long time, a function of numerical differences in our ethnic combination in relation to the Presidency, coupled with the flawed perception that a president benefits the whole tribe.

The Kikuyu happen to be quite a chunk of a voting block due to it’s high population , and members of other tribes feel threatened by the prospect of the Kikuyu monopolizing the presidency,and it’s attendant perceived benefits.

Kikuyus’ Insistence on voting for “their person”(purely for prestige,i.e they don’t want to be “defeated”) doesn’t exactly do matters a whole lot of good.

New constitution was proffered in various quarters as the only way to prevent post election violence, I differed and I still do. For starters,the new constitution is simply too much black ink on white paper, one of the worst (if not the worst) constitutions in the world! It is too long on promise and short on practical steps to actualize them; all about sharing a national cake without a clue as to how it will be baked. In fact, it’s a party manifesto masquerading as a constitution, and implementing it will be quite the nightmare!

secondly, there is no part in that whole constitution that can possibly solve Kenya’s political-social problems. To some extent it even made things worse

The issue of president being required to attain such number of votes in such number of counties is nothing new: it was in the old constitution. 50%+1 rule was actually practiced in Zimbabwe and by the time of going to press Mugabe was still the president, even after losing in the first round to the opposition candidate. Indeed, in 2007 the elections were a kind of run-off election between Kibaki and Raila( disregard Kalonzo’s 10%)

By dividing the country into Jimbos( read:counties), it made things worse: all it will take is for a majority ethnic group in a certain county to decide that the county “belongs” to them and the rest, as they say, will be history. It happened in the old constitution with the counties not constitutionally recognized, can’t think of why it wont happen again!

Step two: Once Narc- Kenya wins the Presidency, Karua should ensure she attends church regularly and prays as fervently .This will ensure that Mungatana somehow gets himself into any of the various disqualification  situations as stipulated  in the new constitution after two and a half years.

Step Three: The presidency will be hers, no questions asked!

I have explained why in Kenyan politics “Martha Karua is not a woman” and “madam president 2012, kenya? NO!” here

This essentially means that we are putting old wine (Kenyans and their mentality) into a new wineskin (a new constitutional dispensation), and hopping the wine will mature with age or something…

If you listen to most Kenyans’ potential candidates for the seats of Governors and Senators, you will get the following qualifications: Male, old( double retired) monied! The more things change the more the remain the same…

Male is a term normally interchangeable with Political Leader in many Kenyans’ Mind irrespective of Gender.

Old is normally confused with appropriate experience and wisdom

Money is a crucial ingredient in politics as Kenyans are generally CORRUPT and one needs lots of money to bribe them to vote for you.

I just have one qualification (in addition to those stipulated in the constitution) for the seats of governors and senators: Age limit: below 50 years! If you vote for anyone who is above that age then you should Know that you are one of the infamous old, spoiled wines!

This goes out to all people of intellect; people, who like me, are tired of being told that we deserve the leaders we’ve got. Unfortunately it’s true. We, who have something between our ears, who have the capacity to change things have done absolutely nothing and then we have acted all surprised-Nay, shocked-when the shit hits the fan.

Kenyans have for long prayed for good leadership and prosperity in the country. However, if you pray to God for something, you are only provided with the opportunity to acquire it. For example, God won’t bring you a job; He will ensure a vacancy that suits you and make sure the info gets to you in time. Like Job of the bible, Kenya has been plagued with numerous seemingly insurmountable problems: a divisive referendum, a bout of post-election violence, hunger, scandals and leaders who are unable or unwilling to rise above ethnic lines in order to lead Kenyans to the Promised Land. This is the opportunity God is giving us to finally come to our senses and use the brains He gave us to create the conditions necessary for the emergence of true national leaders.

It is such a pity that in the land that produced an Obama, we continue to wallo in the miasma  inept and corrupt leadership. This project aims at, inter alia, setting up favorable conditions for the emergence of true national leaders in the country.

My action plan is based on the following premises:-

1) That in order to be able to solve any of our problems- be it post-election violence, bad leadership, corruption etc- we must first overcome our main hindrance: Political tribalism. Normally, Kenyans co-exist in harmony and even intermarry. We ONLY get tribal during heated political events such as referendum or presidential elections. Politicians have made us believe that we are tribal. We are not!

2) That solving political tribalism will essentially demand emergence of True National Leaders preferably, but not necessarily, young who do not owe their allegiance to their tribe but to Kenyans.

3) That to get true national leaders we need to seal all the loopholes which some politicians exploit in order to drive their tribal agenda.

To this end, the following shall happen STARTING with the 2012 General Elections:

From among the group of tribes(ethnic communities) who’ve never had one of their own as President or PM, the electoral body shall conduct a raffle to determine the ethnic community to be designated as the one to provide the country with presidential candidates. This shall be done two years prior to expiry of a current presidential term. For 2012, however, it shall be one year within 2011.

Once a tribe has the docket, it produces all the candidates from which voters will elect the president! A concrete Example, the Gusii community shall be the “presidential tribe” in 2017 General elections. All the presidential candidates shall be from that community. All Kenyans shall vote from among those candidates

The president shall serve a one 5-year term. In case of a vacancy in the presidency before the 5 years are over, all the candidates for the replacement shall come from only that specific tribe.

The presidential candidate shall choose a running mate who will be from one of the communities not eligible to produce a presidential candidate.

All this will:

a)      give the country political stability by virtue of making the political process predictable.

b)      Lead to emergence of true National leaders voted for by all Kenyans and who, therefore, owe their allegiance to KENYANS rather than tribe.

c)      Lead to NATIONAL COHESION as all Kenyans shall be choosing from just one tribe.

d)      Prevent post-election violence which, by and large, results from tribes competing for political power.

e)      And much more…

If this isn’t functional democracy, then I don’t know what is! This is what I prefer to call democracy tempered with affirmative action. This is because even tribes which don’t have the numbers will still have a chance to lead the country.

This will be the last nail in the coffin of tribal politics. This is because all the candidates will be from only one tribe at a time so it will be utter nonsense for any politician to tell people to vote for a person from their tribe.

This will now herald the emergence of true national leaders, leaders who will be elected by Kenyans on the basis of other qualities other than tribe. They will be answerable to Kenyans. .

It will now be possible to choose young leaders, female leaders or whatever other trait we so prefer, without being blindsided by tribalism

In the unlikely event that this doesn’t happen, we should brace ourselves for another episode of post election violence that will make the 07/08 one look like a Sunday picnic in comparison!

The fact that the referendum turns out peaceful will most likely be by default rather than design. Imagine that Raila and Kibaki were on different camps in this referendum…?

I wish YOU well.

Nota bene:

After reading all that may be your conclusion is that I am a tribalist. And maybe you are right I opt not to be your typical “Non-tribal”. After all every other Kenyan and his dog profess to be non tribal and yet look at 07/08 PEV…

This is the reason why we easily go on a killing spree at the least of excuses, and then blame the leaders ostensibly for leading us into temptations.

The presidency has always loomed large in most Kenyans’ minds as the epitome of non appreciation of some cultures, especially those whose population cannot allow them to attain the presidency. This feeling of marginalization is not without merit.  Apparently, once a person gets the presidency he appoints his tribesmen to all the plum jobs-

among other fringe benefits such the Mau

This might not necessarily be true given the fact that very few people of the said tribe actually benefit. But this is beside the point because as the saying goes, justice should not only be done, it should be seen to done. It’s not remotely funny that a certain Mr.Koech,a political analyst, having very insightful knowledge of what’s wrong with the country would get himself tangled and trapped into the same primitive belief. In a recent ‘Citizen TV’ program he went as far as stating that his community’s cows are dying along a water pipeline due to lack of water, chiefly because the ministry of finance and the treasury is staffed with members of one community. If such a learned fellow can reason like that, why would you expect a mere villager to reason any different. They’ve never had the president come from their tribe and even worse, they don’t visualize that as a reality in the near future. In such a case it would be easy to cultivate resentment towards the tribe who seem to be benefiting from the presidency.

The only way forward is to ensure that even those ‘small tribes’ get to have the presidency. This will have various effects:

First, it will practice the preaching that all cultures in Kenya are equal; and that none has a monopoly on the ability to produce presidents.

Secondly, it will be easier to convince Kenyans that there are not many benefits that accrue to the tribe just by virtue of the president hailing from ones tribe. As things stand now, one is hard-pressed to convince members from ‘small tribes’ of this fact given that every other Tom, Wanjiku and Njuguna from Mount Kenya wants to be the president!

Thirdly, it will be a way of walking the talk that we value and appreciate our unique cultural diversity; that we value every Kenyan no matter the tribe.

By making sure that each tribe has an equal chance of leading this country, we shall free ourselves from this tribal baggage being peddled around by politicians, called ‘tribal unity’. In effect, this equality will thaw the tension prevalent among members of different communities allowing normal social interactions as Kenyans thus contributing to eventual ethnic healing.

We could start by prevailing upon the Kikuyu to shelve their presidential ambitions for at least two term… I know, it’s not gonna fucking happen!